The once-fearsome Islamic State army now staggers through its last days. U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters declared Tuesday that they had recaptured Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of the fast-crumbling caliphate. That is a swift and remarkable achievement for an improbable coalition of global friends, enemies and frenemies who looked past other conflicts to focus on crushing the barbarous Islamic State.
Does this portend an interlude of relative calm in the Middle East? Sadly, not likely.
Three thoughts about the terrain ahead:
_ The Islamic State, the army, is in shambles. But the Islamic State, the jihadist rallying cry, will likely continue to inspire terror attacks around the globe. That calls for a stronger global strategy to quash the group's online recruitment and radicalizing of young people.
_ Ally vs. ally: Iraq's army and Kurdish fighters, two U.S. allies, helped defeat the Islamic State. Unfortunately they're now skirmishing with each other. Iraqi government forces have reclaimed control of the Kurdish northern city of Kirkuk after the Kurds voted to seek independence several weeks ago. Neighboring Turkey and Syria also oppose Kurdish independence. Absent strong U.S. diplomacy, the threat of civil war looms.
_ Chaos equals opportunity for U.S. adversaries Iran and Russia. Each used the fight against the Islamic State to increase its footprint in the region while diminishing the threat from the Islamic State. How will Washington and ally Israel respond to these adversaries, each determined to grow its influence in the Middle East?
A look back before a look forward: Recall the panic in 2014 when the Islamic State rampaged onto the world stage, intent on marking its caliphate in blood from Syria and Iraq. The militants posted videos of crucifixions and public executions. They celebrated public beheadings. They hoisted the severed heads of Syrian soldiers on poles. They captured women as sex slaves and forced brides.
They seized so much territory so fast that some Iraqis feared they would march on Baghdad and split the country not quite three years after the last U.S. troops had left.
President Barack Obama, who had famously dismissed the Islamic State as the "junior varsity," belatedly reversed course. He vowed to "degrade and ultimately destroy" Islamic State. That demanded mostly non-American boots on the ground _ and a vigorous follow-through by President Donald Trump, who armed the Syrian Kurds to help recapture Raqqa.
The Islamic State's power grab and brutal tactics managed to unite (more or less) the U.S. and a list of its adversaries and allies. Thus did the U.S. find itself in a foxhole with Russia, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. Holding together that potentially fractious coalition has been no small feat. Iraqi troops and Iranian-backed Shiite militias, backed by U.S. airstrikes and special operations commandos, battled Islamic State militants in Mosul street by street for nearly nine months. Meanwhile, a joint Syrian Kurdish and Arab militia moved on Raqqa. Russia and Turkey also launched joint airstrikes on Islamic State strongholds in Syria. And Turkey allowed allied forces the use of its key Incirlik air base.
Iraq's Shiite-dominated government still isn't sharing power with Sunni political leaders, the key to reconciliation. That's why majority-Sunni cities like Mosul often welcomed, or didn't resist, Islamic State forces. Without reconciliation Iraq remains poised on a sectarian and ethnic fault line of long-standing feuds and resentments. That means Islamic State fighters could also regroup and launch an insurgency that would again test the military prowess of Iraqi forces.
The most immediate aim, however, is to quell the growing conflict between Iraq's government and the breakaway Kurds. Fighting in Iraq could spark a wider conflict because Turkey, Iran and Syria also oppose an independent Kurdish state in their midst.
The U.S. has traditionally sought to preserve Iraq as a unified nation. If that is to happen, Washington needs to broker a deal between the Kurds and Iraq's government. One bargaining chip: Iraq's government could give the Kurds a bigger cut of the revenue generated by oil fields on Kurdish territory.
In 2011, we cautiously celebrated the demise if not death of al-Qaida. A team of Navy SEALs had dispatched al-Qaida mastermind Osama bin Laden, and an American drone attack killed his operations chief. The terror group never recovered.
Today, as the Islamic State reels, the U.S. and its allies face a more fragmented threat, a cast of terrorist converts still pledging allegiance to the caliphate that isn't, still plotting one-off attacks with cars, trucks or knives against civilians.
Then, as now, killing terrorist leaders wherever they plot is vital. But eradicating the nihilistic, blood-drenched creed that helps terrorists recruit followers is an equally critical mission that, unlike the combat that is evicting the Islamic State, never ends.
Chicago Tribune
via Tribune News Service