BISMARCK, N.D. -- While the official U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service aerial survey of wetlands and breeding duck numbers likely won't be released for a while yet, the biologists who conduct those counts are reporting mixed results across the northern plains, where the vast majority of Missouri and Arkansas' waterfowl migrate from in the fall.
The western Dakotas, just outside of the "Prairie Pothole Region," appears to have plenty of water and ducks this spring.
"Most reservoirs, dug outs and natural wetlands that were dry or low last year are full," said survey conductor Rob Spangler in a recent blog post. More rain in South Dakota has "resulted in nearly double the number of wetlands that we had in 2017 and in (western) North Dakota, the number of wetlands has increased about 30 percent."
Spangler reported that while the analysis of all his data isn't yet complete, "the numbers of birds appear to be higher this year and conditions look promising for waterfowl in the Dakotas this spring."
In stark contrast to that, eastern Dakotas survey conductor Terry Liddick is reporting very dry conditions.
"North Dakota has become, so far, a different story than South Dakota," he said. "The first few transects are showing a drying trend. This region did not see the amount of snowfall South Dakota did, and it is evident as we crisscross the state between the Minnesota border and the Missouri River."
Farther north, wetland conditions are even worse in southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan.
"The southern part of Manitoba received almost no rain this spring, and with below average precipitation this winter, habitat is dry throughout our entire crew area," reported survey crew member Sarah Yates. "Permanent water bodies are low, the marshes on the big lakes are dry and streams, ditches and canals are completely dried up."
In a nutshell, Yates said, "we are observing significantly fewer wetlands this year, and fewer birds total in most areas."
Of course, dry ground conditions are not conducive to successful duck nesting in the Prairie Pothole Region, widely regarded as the most important waterfowl nesting area on the continent.
Fortunately, nature tends to find a way to survive, and ducks are resilient in their nesting efforts.
"The ducks move to where habitat conditions are more favorable," said Ducks Unlimited Communications Biologist Jennifer Kross, who works out of the organization's Great Plains Regional Office in Bismarck, N.D. "Some ducks will nest in an area, and if that nest fails, they will travel to a different area to find a better place."
What this fall's migration will hold for waterfowl hunters in Missouri and Arkansas will depend on how well the ducks adapt to the tougher conditions in their nesting grounds.
"We won't know exactly what the migrating duck numbers will look like until the later waterfowl surveys in the late spring and early fall, when they look at fall flight populations," Kross said.