The National Weather Service Paducah has issued weather statements for Southeast Missouri and its bordering states for potential flooding, thunderstorms and winter precipitation.
Lead forecaster Chris Noles said Southeast Missouri can expect “multiple impacts.” The initial rainfall hits Monday night and will continue through Tuesday, bringing risks of damaging straightline winds and flash floods. Wednesday night and Thursday the area is expected to get a two-part winter storm system of undetermined impact.
“We’re looking at the chance for severe storms,” Noles said of the initial rain events. “Flash flooding is a significant concern across our area... And then we’re looking at a potentially significant winter storm for Wednesday night coming in two waves, actually Wednesday night and then again Thursday, midday to early evening.”
He also noted air instability has increased in the region and there is a slight risk for a tornado — only 5%.
A flood watch starts late Monday night and will continue through Tuesday evening. Southeast Missouri saw 4-5 inches of rain over several hours last week, which still saturates the ground and increases risk of flooding. The NWS expects the region could see another 3-4 inches in this system.
The Black River and Current River both rose markedly due to the previous rainfall. The Black River was expected to crest at 14.5 feet Tuesday night, as of Monday afternoon, before new rainfall began. Flood stage is 16 feet. Meanwhile, the Current River is expected to crest at 22.5 feet Tuesday night, and its flood stage is 22 feet. Crest predictions do not include any overnight rain.
Poplar Bluff city employees closed valves and put up flood control walls along the Black River last week to prevent river water from flowing up the outlets and back into the city. Street manager Jerry Lawson said crews are prepared to close them again if necessary. He noted the operators of Clearwater Dam in Piedmont, which controls the Black River’s level, do their best to protect areas downstream.
“They’re very mindful of not causing us issues, if at all possible. And hats off to them. They do look out for Poplar Bluff and, of course, other communities downstream of them,” he said.
Tuesday’s mild temperatures will bottom out with a cold front in the evening, taking the region from highs in the 60s to the upper 30s Wednesday and upper 20s Thursday. This cold air kicks off the expected wintry mix.
Noles advised Southeast Missouri to expect freezing rain and sleet in two parts, “one wave Wednesday night with a lull Thursday morning, and then another round from midday to early afternoon, ending in the early evening.”
NWS Paducah cannot yet speak to ice accumulation, but some indicators point to approximately a quarter of an inch. Noles stressed it is too early to say, but the potential for accumulation on roads increases into Thursday.
“We’re not predicting specific amounts yet in this area. But there could be significant impacts to both travel and the concern with the elevated accumulations of ice in trees or on power lines.” he said, adding, “This is all subject to change.”
However the exact amounts play out, Noles was certain of one thing.
“‘Mess,’ I think, sums it up pretty well over the next few days,” he said.