Cutting with razors to the truth of the Trump assassination attempt

Hanlon’s Razor dictates, “Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” This sharp remark can cut away a multitude of bizarre theories and expose the mundane but no less terrifying reality of tragedy.

In the immediate fallout of the attempt on former President Trump’s life, conspiracies continue to abound. The speculation of who or what would want to kill a prominent political figure is perhaps warranted.

There are certainly people and organizations that could benefit from removing Trump from the political scene. Conversely, some say this was some kind of stunt to boost his popularity.

The speculators on both sides are scrambling to figure out how Thomas Crooks found an unoccupied rooftop within 200 yards of a former president. Some say the Secret Service or the local police department deliberately left the site open for the would-be assassin.

It is a common feature of the American political landscape to assign a “conspiracy of the gaps” to each unknown corner of a narrative. Wherever the viewer does not have the complete picture, countless commentators are squirming with conspiratorial glee.

It should not be ruled out that some organization or group of people commissioned an isolated young man to throw his life away. However, Hanlon’s Razor points in the other direction.

Not enough people are asking if the security oversight was mere incompetence. When Trump was whisked away to an SUV, videos showed a cadre of Secret Service members seemingly in panic.

One member struggled to holster her firearm while her comrade fiddled with her sunglasses. Granted, the adrenaline of the moment could cause some mistakes to be made.

Nevertheless, a motion that ought to be second nature to a professional bodyguard in the elite Secret Service like holstering a pistol should not go out the window in a crisis situation.

According to a private military contractor friend of mine who recognized the Velocity Systems ShadoWorks low visibility plate system she carried, the member was also wearing her plates backward.

It could be that this individual is an outlier in a field of outstanding professionals. However, her poorly coordinated gesticulations must be taken in context with the broader security failure.

An unconfirmed video making the rounds on social media shows local police and Secret Service personnel repeatedly ramming a squad car through a fence to get to the building where Crooks was situated. This was possibly due to an apparent lack of contingency plans for getting the reactionary squad to the crisis zone.

Had snipers not already neutralized the threat, Crooks could have rained down death for another several minutes. Whether this video accurately depicts events is immaterial.

The unsecured rooftop with a perfect vantage point on Trump was a major failure of the on-site security forces.

While Hanlon’s Razor can explain the defense side of the equation, what can be said of Crooks and his motives? Here one may employ another problem-solving principle: Occam’s Razor.

This principle may be paraphrased as, “The simplest explanation is often the best.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control, 16.5% of people over 18 were under the influence of mind-altering medications in 2020. 20.3% of Americans received treatment for mental health conditions in the same year.

This says nothing about the multitude of untreated and undiagnosed mentally ill individuals. From what little we know about Crooks, he was constantly bullied and isolated among his peers.

To be clear, I am not disparaging those with mental health conditions. However, one must ask if mental health had a part to play in his decision to make an attempt on Trump’s life and lose his own in the process.

It is far simpler to say Crooks was driven by inner turmoil than to submit grand theories of being groomed by foreign or domestic intelligence.

Between Hanlon’s and Occam’s Razors, I postulate the most likely explanation of the events of July 13 is that a troubled young man got lucky by the Secret Service’s incompetence.

Both the broader mental health crisis and the growing ineptitude of the country’s government ought to disquiet the reader far more than aqueous theories of a complex conspiracy to assassinate Trump.

Joe McGraw is a staff writer for the Daily American Republic. He can be reached at jmcgraw@darnews.com.